Are We Experiencing a Pandemic?

The latest data (June 10) from WHO (World Health Organization) regarding the A/H1N1 influenza virus, reports 27,737 cases, with 141 fatalities from 74 countries. Canada reports 2,446 cases with 4 fatalities.

WHO appears close to announcing that the world is experiencing an Influenza  Pandemic. The Director General, Dr. Margaret Chan is planning a discussion with various governments today, and will probably announce on Thursday.   At the last WHO press briefing, (June 9) the spokesperson, Dr Keiji Fukuda, was clear that the declaration of a pandemic has more to do with its geographical dispersion than its severity or fatality rate per se. Although the appearance of A/H1N1 in 74 countries, on all continents would suggest that this level should have been announced a few weeks ago, WHO has been reluctant to take this final step. My guess is that the reluctance in part is due to the automatic triggers that will occur in countries regarding travel, trade, and various protocols that will be implemented as soon as a Level 6 is declared. WHO states that they want to avoid panic reactions in countries (such as scared people over-running the hospitals, for example)

Here are some things which have been reported from reputable, scientific sites.

WHO reports on laboratory confirmed cases. This means that there are most likely far more cases of the flu than what has been confirmed by WHO. Many jurisdictions have stopped testing every suspected case, and in many areas of the world, testing is not possible due to the remoteness of the area, war and conflict conditions, or the non-reporting of some countries such as North Korea, or Burma. As information from those two areas is tightly controlled by the Government, it is not known whether they do not have any cases or whether they are not reporting any cases.  

You may have read about a spike in cases in Nunavut. That appears to be a result of increased surveillance with every reported case being tested. There is no information provided as to whether any of the suspected cases were NOT A/H1N1. It is difficult to know exactly what to make of the situation in Nunavut since Yellowknife, NWT is reporting only two cases, and the Yukon, just 1. WHO says that in past pandemics, the Inuit population has been severely hit compared to some other groups, but again, there is no agreed upon cause as to why this should be so.

The influenza has moved into the southern hemisphere (as is usual in cases of usual seasonal influenza which strikes predominately during colder months). Thus we are getting reports of numerous cases in Australia, New Zealand, and countries in South America such as Argentina, Chile and Peru.