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Pitsel Pandemic News (04|28|09)

Swine Flu – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

We have a special newsletter – Pitsel Pandemic Newsletter – however, in light of the current “panic” about swine flu,. I thought it might be helpful to devote this issue of the Pitsel Power Minute to this topic and bring you up to date on what is happening as of Tuesday, April 28th, 2009.

The Good news: For some unknown, at this time, reasons, swine flu that has been detected in both Canada and the United States is less virulent than that which has occurred in Mexico. To date there have been NO reported fatalities, and those suffering from the illness are those who have travelled to and have returned from trips to Mexico.

Although laboratory testing has indicated that the flu in Mexico and that identified here are the same strain, there is, as of yet, no explanation as to why the illnesses here seem to be less severe.

Tamiflu and Relenza appear to be effective in treating this type of flu (provided that these anti-virals are taken within the first 48 hours of the infection). The Canadian government and all the Provinces have stockpiles of these medications, so there is currently no concern as to a shortage of effective treatment measures.

Although influenza is very infectious, the good news is that the majority of people will NOT contract the flu, even if it is a novel virus. The most pessimistic projection that I have seen in the last couple of days is that up to 40% of the population may become ill – which means that 60% will avoid contracting it.

The precautions against developing flu are relatively simple – wash your hands frequently with hot water and soap (or use hand sanitizers with at least 60% alcohol. The Centre for Disease Control says anti-bacterial hand sanitizers that contain alcohol will be effective against a virus as well, although some folks on the web claim that you need to have a product that contains Benzethonium chloride which is specifically anti-viral.) In any event, wash your hand frequently, and keep them away from your face – eyes, nose and mouth.

The Bad news: The rapid spread of this virus is concerning. Although it appears that the virus was infecting people in Mexico, perhaps as early as February, it did not attain a critical mass and spread over varied geographical areas until April. However, the spread into the US and Canada happened very quickly, and Canadian public health officials are suggesting that we will see cases here in Alberta, sooner rather than later.

We now see numerous countries – Scotland, Portugal, Italy, Korea, New Zealand, and Hong Kong, reporting instances of swine flu – again, contracted by people who have just returned from Mexico. Other Asian countries (Thailand, for example) are tracking people who have just returned from Mexico.

This is one of the reasons why an influenza pandemic is so worrisome to health officials – its very rapid spread. Influenza is particularly troublesome because people can be infectious a day or so in advance of exhibiting signs of the illness. This can make it very difficult for people to avoid those who are ill because we can’t easily spot them in advance and avoid close contact with them. People can remain infectious for 7 days, and children may be infectious for longer than that.

"Infectious diseases, including pandemic influenza, pose a serious threat and require research on vaccines and treatments. "

— Ike Skelton, U.S. Congressman

Some officials are worried that this swine flu may mimic what happened with the 1018 Spanish flu. It seems that prior to the outbreak in an army camp in the U.S., there had been a previous milder strain of flu that had travelled around the country. Because it was quite mild (and because the US was engaged in World War I at the time) not much attention was given to this first wave. The second wave, that which went around the world in short order and killed anywhere from 40 million to 100 million according to some estimates, was much more severe and more lethal. Our concern should be that this first wave of swine flu might, in fact, be the first of two or three waves, each one increasing in adverse impact, including a higher mortality rate.

The Ugly news: Conspiracy theories, especially on the web, are beginning to proliferate, There are the usual ones claiming that this is a global plot by “THEM and THEY” in order to reduce the global population to 560 million people – a supposed limit which our earth can support . A more troublesome aspect is the comment made by the Indonesian Minister of Health. An ABC news report from Jakarta reports:
“ JAKARTA - Indonesian Heath Minister Siti Fadilah Supari said Tuesday the deadly swine flu virus could have been man-made, as she urged calm over its spread around the world.

The controversial minister did not elaborate but in the past she has said Western governments could be making and spreading viruses in the developing world to boost pharmaceutical companies' profits.

"I'm not sure whether the virus was genetically engineered but it's a possibility," she told reporters at a press conference called to reassure the public over the government's response to the swine flu threat.”

You may see, especially on the web, increasing posts about the “weaponization” of viruses, and various allusions to bio-terrorism.

Unfortunately, for those who are firm believers in conspiracies, there is probably no evidence or data that will dissuade them from their opinion.

Lessons in all this? Take reasonable health precautions – WASH YOUR HANDS FREQUENTLY – stay home if you feel sick. Be careful what you read on the web – look for reputable sources, and for more than one source to confirm rumours. If you wish to be added to our Pandemic Newsletter, please advise and we will add your name to the list. In the meantime, stay well.

© 2008, Pitsel and Associates Ltd.
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