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Pitsel Pandemic News (02|05|09)

1 + 1 = 2

Dr. Michael Greger writes in the February, 2009 issue of "Ecologist", that health scourges such as smallpox and measles, which have claimed hundreds of millions of lives in recent centuries, were birthed in the barnyard about 10,000 years ago.

Smallpox, he tells us, likely came from camelpox, and measles from the rinderpest virus of cattle. Before the domestication of ducks, there was likely no such thing as the human flu or influenza pandemics.

Domesticated pigs probably gave us whooping cough; and leprosy came from the water buffalo. Horses gave us the common cold, thank-you-very-much. All bird flu viruses seem to begin harmlessly enough for us, and it is all about us, within the bird population, but it is the nature of viruses to "adapt to new markets," like little entrepreneurs.

When the pandemic jumps species, as it will, and arrives in its human-to-human contagious form, it will be as if out of the blue. Where did this come from? We've never had this before? It will spread so quickly everyone who isn't ill will be struck with disbelief, and everyone will say it took them by complete surprise.

Surprise? Really? Please, please prepare your supplies. Hindsight will show all the indicators were there. Why didn't we see?

Let's just do a little math to see why we're encouraging you to take steps toward preparation. Things are adding up like this:

1) A 21 year-old woman in central China became ill, infected by the H5N1 virus January 23, making her the eighth reported case this year in China, five of whom have died. We are only 37 days into the year.

2) Last week 60,000 turkeys in the Fraser Valley, here in Canada, were culled because of being infected with bird flu. Here in Canada. Three out of four of the most recent avian flu outbreaks in Canada have broken out in the Fraser Valley; and despite years of trying to figure it out, they still can't explain why the valley attracts the virus. In the first outbreak in 2004, 15 million birds, almost the entire valley poultry population, were destroyed. One theory to explain the Fraser Valley outbreaks is that it is on the Pacific flyway.

3) A new case this week reports the death of an Indonesian woman who is thought to have died of avian flu in the last few days, although the Indonesian authorities will not confirm the cause of death. Indonesia has shown great reluctance in the past to confirm cases of H5N1 in humans fearing the international censure of Indonesian health authorities, policies, and practices. As we have noted in the past Indonesia has had more cases of H5N1 than any other country and is currently following a policy of only publicly reporting human infections from time to time, rather than as they occur. (Egypt, another "hot spot", is reporting their third human death from H5N1 this year.)

4) Hong Kong in China, and Hanoi in Vietnam, are each reporting new outbreaks of bird flu among poultry. This follows a recent cull in Hong Kong of its entire poultry population, resulting in millions of dollars of lost revenue.

5) Hong Kong also reports a bird flu outbreak in Lantau, one of the outlying islands.

6) Hong Kong reports the belief that there is a bird flu outbreak among poultry in mainland China that the mainland authorities are denying. The mainland government neglects to share such information not only with the rest of the world, but with their Hong Kong neighbours as well.

7) Today China announced yet another human incident, the recovery of a three-year-old girl from H5N1 after receiving hospital treatment.

Adding these news items from just the past week, to the reported human deaths in China since just the beginning of January, it appears that more cases of human-to-human transmission of the virus are occurring with some regularity, and at varying locations. These are what have been reported officially. It is impossible to know what news is not reported, or is even purposely hidden. China's performance in informing world nations and the media in the past only feeds suspicion that this is bigger than we are led to believe.

China has earned a terrible reputation for hiding bad news at the cost of public safety. Typically it muzzles health officials and news media to prevent the public hearing of health hazards. In 2003, Guandong provincials covered up the SARS epidemic for 22 weeks before informing the Hong Kong residents. By that time it was too late, and nearly 300 people died of SARS in Hong Kong alone, as well as hundreds more worldwide.

Last summer's melamine mild scandal showed China is still unwilling to inform the public of health hazards in a responsible and timely manner.

The Canadian Press reports that the World Health Organization is denying the individual Chinese cases represent the human-to-human spread that could signal the start of a pandemic. This is their official assessment, however Dr. Keiji Fukuda, with the WHO global influenza program said it was "notable" that the cases have cropped up in diverse parts of China. "And what that really tells us again is that the virus is really widespread in China." Concerns have been raised that cases in China are occurring now in places where there have been no previously reported outbreaks in birds, and are continuing to spread despite massive efforts by Chinese authorities to vaccinate poultry flocks across the country.

This WEEK #3 of the Preparation Challenge: in case the utilities go out (and we wouldn't believe that could happen either if we hadn't experienced Walkerton) you will want to have a supply of water for drinking, and water to mix with bleach, other disinfectant cleaners, and liquid soaps. Also on the list for this week are face masks.

Stay well. Take care.

© 2009, Pitsel and Associates Ltd.
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